Prediction

Adaptivity vs. predictability at controlled intersections

This paper treats the dilemma between phase change prediction and phase change control by vehicle actuation. Traffic dependency is the greatest enemy of predictability. Intersections with cyclic control are easily predictable, even from the outside by observing its phase changes. With increasing traffic-dependency, predictability decreases until the incapacity of doing any prediction. With increasing traffic, traffic-dependency decreases due to oversaturation and predictability increases. Countdown devices installed at vehicle and pedestrian lights require good predictability of light changes, to red and to green. Higher predictability means lower traffic actuation and thus lower control quality and therefore longer travel times and longer waiting queues. Countdown devices have become very fashionable at many places. This paper tries to formalize the dependency between predictability and traffic dependency and tries to show ways how the two can cohabitate. 

Download the paper here: Singapore_EU-TP1707  [PDF, 1.00 MB]